China forecasts moderate-or-stronger El Nino, warns of tighter energy, fuel squeeze

BEIJING – China might have to burn more fossil fuels in 2026 as meteorologists forecast a moderate-or-stronger El Nino weather event in the summer and autumn, which could disrupt operations at hydropower stations across the region at a time when fuel supplies from the Middle East are disrupted.

China’s National Climate Centre expects El Nino conditions to emerge in May and said an El Nino event would last at least through the end of 2026, according to an analysis published by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) over the weekend.

El Nino is a natural weather pattern linked to a warming of the central and eastern Pacific, bringing heavier rainfall to the Pacific coast of the Americas.

In the Western Pacific, the shift can disrupt the East Asian monsoon, raising the odds of flooding in southern China and drought in other Chinese regions.

Flooding caused by a severe El Nino event can damage power grid infrastructure, while both excessive rainfall and drought can require hydropower dams to reduce or even halt output, senior meteorologist Wang Yaqi said in the CMA’s analysis.

El Nino can have a severe impact on hydropower-dependent regions, Mr Wang added.

“Reduced hydropower output often forces energy systems to switch to fossil-fuel generation, driving up... the cost of energy imports and creating a vicious climate-energy-economic cycle,” the government meteorologist said.

China, the world’s top energy importer and leading hydropower generator, has already curtailed fuel exports to countries including Malaysia and Australia, as the US-Israeli war with Iran squeezes global energy supply.

Increased autumn rainfall in China’s southern regions as a result of El Nino also raises the risk of disruption to the harvest of late-season rice, while warmer-than-usual winter conditions could reduce available water supplies for 2027’s spring ploughing. REUTERS